Projecting climate-related disease burden: A guide for health departments
Categories: Climate change & health Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessments, Health National Adaptation Plans, Guidance document, Country experience, Tools, Global, Americas (Pan American Health Organization), Climate Resilient Health Systems
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
This resource provides practical guidance for projecting climate‑related disease burdens, detailing each step required to assess how changing climate conditions may influence future health outcomes. It presents core components of the process, including: developing causal pathways, assembling climate and health data, deriving exposure–response functions, and applying modeling approaches to estimate future disease impacts. It also highlights methods for evaluating uncertainty, incorporating adaptation measures, and using projections iteratively within an adaptive management framework. The guidance includes examples, such as heat‑related illness and waterborne disease, to illustrate practical application of the methods and common challenges encountered in climate‑health modeling.
This resource can support efforts to strengthen climate preparedness, prioritize climate‑sensitive health risks, and inform evidence‑based adaptation planning.
Intended users
Ministries of health; Public health professionals; Researchers.