Epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecast in Victoria
Categories: Action Line 1: Surveillance and monitoring, Assessments of climate and health risks and GHG emissions, Air quality, Storms
Country: Australia
Organizations: Victorian Department of Health
The intervention
In November 2016, the state of Victoria, Australia experienced the world’s largest epidemic thunderstorm asthma event, triggered by an unusual combination of high grass pollen levels and storm conditions, resulting in close to 3,500 additional hospital presentations and 10 deaths. In response, the state government developed a comprehensive epidemic thunderstorm asthma programme, including a three-day risk forecasting system. Combining grass pollen and meteorological data, the system operates during the October through December grass pollen season to help at-risk individuals reduce exposure and allow health services to prepare for surges in demand. With climate change expected to intensify both pollen and storms, the system is a critical public health tool.
Success factors
Collaboration and partnerships with experts have been key to the success of the epidemic thunderstorm asthma programme, including the risk forecasting system. Following the 2016 event, the Victorian government held a national epidemic thunderstorm asthma symposium involving over 100 experts. Informed by this expert advice, the Victorian government has worked with a wide range of partners to design and deliver the programme. This has included partnering with other Australian states and territories and leveraging joint funding opportunities. For example, in 2025, Victoria’s epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk forecasting system was modernised through installation of world leading automated pollen counters, which use advanced imaging to deliver faster and more accurate data.
Recommendations
Countries seeking to replicate Victoria’s approach should adopt a comprehensive, multi-faceted program that integrates early warning, communication, and health system preparedness. Establishing a risk forecasting system that combines meteorological and grass pollen data is essential to provide timely alerts and enable proactive planning. Complementary community education materials - delivered in multiple languages and formats - should be promoted through annual public health campaigns to reach diverse populations. Health professional training, emergency preparedness protocols, and syndromic surveillance systems should be developed in parallel to strengthen clinical and operational readiness and response. Collectively, these measures enhance public awareness, reduce exposure risks, and improve coordinated response during higher risk periods.
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